濠叔隨筆

　　網路上看到一篇由一個印度經濟學家寫的英文文章
【Saving is sin, and spending is virtue...儲蓄是罪惡，消費才有價值】
理論非常有趣，但應該是在這波金融風暴之前寫的，我們馬政府是不是也看到了？所以提倡大家消費？

先翻譯分享大家，當然也有些個人看法在後：
【Interesting article written by an Indian Economist
　一個印度經濟學家寫的有趣文章

　Japanese save a lot. They do not spend much.
Also Japan exports far more than it imports.
Has an annual trade surplus of over 100 billions.
Yet Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.
　日本人愛儲蓄，他們不太花錢。
日本的出口量也遠大於入口量，每年貿易逆差超過一千億美金，但是日本的經濟現在卻很弱，甚至有崩盤的危機。

　　Americans spend, save little.
Also US imports more than it exports.
Has an annual trade deficit of over $400 billion.
Yet, the American economy is considered strong and trusted to get stronger.
　　美國人很會花錢，很少儲蓄。
美國的進口也遠大於出口。
每年的貿易順差也高達四千億。
然而，美國經濟卻是很強盛，甚至認為會更強盛。

　　But where from do Americans get money to spend?
They borrow from Japan, China and even India.
Virtually others save for the US to spend.
Global savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars.
　　但是你有想過美國人從哪裡來那麼多錢來花嗎？
他們都是從日本、中國甚至印度借來的！

實質上是其他國家儲蓄來給美國花用！

全球的儲蓄大多是投注在美金上。

　　India itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50 billions in US securities.
China has sunk over $160 billion in US securities.
Japan's stakes in US securities is in trillions.
　　印度的外匯存底有五百億美元在美國債劵上，中國卡在美元的債劵超過一千六百億，〈現在已超過兩兆〉
日本也在兆元以上。

Result:
The US has taken over $5 trillion from the world.
So, as the world saves for the US, Americans spend freely.
Today, to keep the US consumption going,
that is for the US economy to work,
other countries have to remit $180 billion every quarter,
which is $2 billion a day, to the US!
結果是：
美國從全世界拿走五兆元以上，所以說，全世界都在為美國儲蓄，任由美國自在的花錢。
現今，只要維持美國消費量繼續成長，那麼美國的經濟就不會有問題，其它國家每季匯給美國一千八百億，也就是每天匯二十億給美國！

　　A Chinese economist asked a neat question.
Who has invested more, US in China, or China in US?
The US has invested in China less than half of what China has invested in US.
　　一位中國經濟學家問了一個值得深思的問題，是美國投資中國多還是中國投資美國多？
美國在中國的投資還不到中國對美國投資的一半。

　　The same is the case with India.
We have invested in US over $50 billion.
But the US has invested less than $20 billion in India.
　　同樣的情況在印度。
我們投資美國超過五百億。
可是美國投資在印度卻少於兩百億。

　　Why the world is after US?
The secret lies in the American spending, that they hardly save.
In fact they use their credit cards to spend their future income.
That the US spends is what makes it attractive to export to the US.
So US imports more than what it exports year after year.
　　為什麼世界要追隨美國？
關鍵點就在於美國的消費，他們很少存錢的。
事實上他們用信用卡花費未來的收入，因此美國的消費力對那些以輸入到美國的商品是充滿吸引力的市場，所以每年美國的進口總是大於出口。

The result:
The world is dependent on US consumption for its growth.
By its deepening culture of consumption,
the US has habituated the world to feed on US consumption.
But as the US needs money to finance its consumption,
the world provides the money.
結果是：
全世界的成長倚賴美國的消費，對這種消費文化習性的根深蒂固，美國也使全世界習慣於供給美國的消費，但美國也需要錢來支付消費，於是全世界也提供給美國用來消費的錢。

　　It's like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer
so that the customer keeps buying from the shop.
If the customer will not buy, the shop won't have business,
unless the shopkeeper funds him.
The US is like the lucky customer.
And the world is like the helpless shopkeeper financier..
　　這就像商店提供錢給顧客，所以顧客可以不斷買商店的東西，假如顧客一旦不買，商店就不會有生意，除非商店給他賒帳。
美國就像這個幸運的顧客，而全世界就像那個無助只能給顧客賒帳的商店。

　　Who is America's biggest shopkeeper financier?
Japan of course.
Yet it's Japan which is regarded as weak.
Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend,so they do not grow.
To force the Japanese to spend, the Japanese government exerted itself,reduced the savings rates, even charged the savers.
Even then the Japanese did not spend(habits don't change, even with taxes, do they?).
Their traditional postal savings alone is over $1.2 trillions,about three times the Indian GDP.
Thus, savings, far from being the strength of Japan, has become its pain.
　　誰是美國最大的賒帳商店？
當然是日本。
然而日本大家認為是弱質的，現代經濟學家抱怨日本不花錢，所以他們沒有成長。
強迫日本人花錢，日本政府應發揮影響力，降低儲蓄率，甚至對儲蓄者課稅。
就算是這樣子，日本人還是不花錢，〈就算是課稅，習慣也很難改變，不是嗎？〉他們單單是郵政儲金一項，就高達一兆兩千億，大概是印度年生產毛額的三倍。
因為這樣，儲蓄已遠超過人們認為是日本的強項，成了他的痛處。

　　Hence, what is the lesson?
That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save.
Not just spend, but borrow and spend.
Dr. Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous Indian-born economist in the US,told Manmohan Singh that Indians wastefully save.
Ask them to spend, on imported cars and, seriously,even on cosmetics!
This will put India on a growth curve.
This is one of the reason for MNC's coming down to India,seeing the consumer spending.
　　所以，從這裡我們學到了甚麼？
那就是，一個國家不可能成長除非人民花費，而不是傳統的觀念儲蓄。
不但要花錢，還要借錢來花。

Jagdish Bhagwati 博士，印度出生在美國非常有名的經濟學家，告訴Manmohan Singh 說，印度不需要儲蓄，告訴他們要花錢，要進口汽車，甚至進口化妝品！
這樣會讓印度站上成長曲線。
這也是 MNC's 到印度原因之一，看看消費者怎麼花錢。

　　'Saving is sin, and spending is virtue.'
But before you follow this neo economics,get some fools to save so that you can borrow from them and spend!!!
　　“儲蓄是罪惡，花費才有價值”
但是在你遵循這個新第三紀的經濟理論之前，必須有一些呆子去儲蓄，這樣你才能向他們借錢來花！】

※
　　這波世界金融風暴，事實上也源自美國的金錢遊戲高槓桿操作的結果，過度消費現在也證實了不見得是那麼好玩；美國要用大量印製美鈔〈超過一兆美金〉來解決目前的經濟危機，他沒有外匯存底的問題，它要印多少鈔票就印多少鈔票，當然它要全世界來共同承擔是它自己造成的惡果，公平嗎？
現在充分顯示了文章中的觀點“全世界省吃儉用來給美國人花費！”

　　過去美國只要印美鈔就可換來全世界的商品，或換取全世界實質上的投資，美金大家用來做外匯存底，大家搶著要；
但若有一天大家覺得美金無法再保值要還給你美國的時候，那才是美金更大災難的開始！
它可能會發生嗎？
當然有可能！
現在不是已經有人在提出“國際貨幣”的想法了嗎？

　　目前手中擁有大量美金的世界經濟強國，諸如：中國、日本等，現在不敢明講拋售美金，因為那樣會讓自己遭受慘重損失，但未來的時間會不會漸漸處分美金？
換作是你，你會這樣做嗎？